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Today, we released our next installment of the Beacon Poll, a statewide survey of 1,200 registered Tennessee voters comprised of questions about political races, policy issues, and more.

Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 21 points in the first Beacon Poll since Harris became the Democratic nominee for president. While Trump still maintains a solid lead, it is clear that the Democrats made a good decision to replace President Joe Biden on the ticket as Harris polls seven points higher than Biden would have if he were still in the race.

As the devastating effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton continue to unfold in the Southeast, many Tennesseans are focused on disaster recovery efforts. When it comes to which presidential candidate Tennesseans trust more to deal with natural disasters, Trump is the clear winner. Likely voters prefer Trump by 23 points over Harris when it comes to handling a natural disaster and recovery (58%-35%). Trump also leads on the issues of managing an economic crisis (+30%), foreign policy/national security (+37%), and managing inflation (+33%). Harris does not lead in any of the 12 policy issues we polled, but the spread is smallest on the issue of showing empathy and connecting with the American people (-3%).

In the first Tennessee poll conducted since the primary elections, Sen. Marsha Blackburn has extended her lead over Rep. Gloria Johnson to 23 points among likely voters (54%-31%), with third-party Independent candidate Pamela Moses garnering 5% of the vote. This marks Blackburn’s biggest lead in the race, according to our polling. When asked about the candidates’ political views, 30% of likely voters think that Blackburn is too conservative, while 36% think Johnson is too liberal. Sen. Blackburn also posted her best approval rating to date, with 53% of Tennesseeans approving of the job Blackburn is doing and 35% disapproving of the way she is doing her job.

The U.S. Supreme Court has been in the news recently, with opinions spanning the political spectrum. Interestingly, a plurality of Tennessee voters (49%) approve of the job the Supreme Court is doing while 44% disapprove of it. When it comes to term limits for Supreme Court justices, a slight plurality (48%) backs President Biden’s proposal to implement term limits for the Supreme Court, while 44% oppose the proposal.

Two economic policies have come up early and often in the presidential race: tariffs and taxes on unrealized gains. Tennessee voters are split on one of President Trump’s big issues, tariffs. Forty-one percent of Tennesseans believe tariffs are necessary to protect American-made products even if they result in a temporary price increase, while 39% believe that tariffs are essentially taxes that increase the cost of goods and can worsen inflation.

However, Tennessee voters are much clearer in their views on taxing unrealized gains, one of Vice President Harris’ proposals. Astonishingly, only 13% of Tennesseans believe that it is fair to tax a hypothetical increase in value on things like stocks and homes, while 69% of voters think that practice is unfair. The concept of unrealized gains is even 41 points underwater with Tennessee Democrats.

When it comes to school choice broadly, Tennessee voters are more likely to vote for candidates who support it than oppose it by a 40-point margin. Fifty-eight percent of likely voters are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports policies that allow parents to choose their child’s school (public, private, charter, or homeschool) using public funding, while 18% are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports school choice policies.

In lighter news, with autumn now upon us, we asked Tennesseans what they think about the most controversial fall beverage, pumpkin spice lattes. In a big upset, a plurality of Tennessee voters (33%) either like or love them while 32% hate or dislike the beverage. Interestingly, there was a big difference among party lines with Democrats (+20%) being much more likely to enjoy pumpkin spice lattes than Republicans (-11%).

You can read the full poll with party crosstabs here.
You can read the full poll with demographic and regional crosstabs here.
You can read the full poll of likely voters here.