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Today, we released our next installment of the Beacon Poll, a statewide survey of 1,200 registered Tennessee voters comprised of questions about political races, policy issues, and more.

In a surprising turn of events, Donald Trump’s recent conviction of 34 felony charges for falsifying documents in New York has actually helped the former president in Tennessee. The guilty verdict in New York made 34% of Tennesseans more likely to vote for Trump in November while only 22% are less likely to vote for him.  A plurality (40%) said the outcome of the trial has no impact on their vote. This sentiment is backed up in the polling numbers, with Trump jumping out to a 30-point lead over Joe Biden in a three-way race that includes Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., a 10-point improvement since our April poll.

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As the Senate primary approaches, Sen. Marsha Blackburn has jumped out to a 20+ point lead on both of her potential Democratic challengers in the general election. Blackburn now leads state Rep. Gloria Johnson by 20 points (52%-32%) and Marquita Bradshaw by 21 points (54%-33%). While Blackburn has opened up a substantial lead, it is notable that both Democratic candidates for Senate are outperforming President Biden by nearly 10 points.

Nashville has been brought up frequently as a city that could attract a new professional sports franchise, with rumors popping up about a possible Major League Baseball team moving to Music City. If this were to happen, it is clear that voters do not believe state tax dollars should go toward building the team’s stadium. Only 27% of voters believe that state tax dollars should be used to fund the construction of a new MLB stadium in Nashville while 58% of Tennesseans do not. The idea of using state tax dollars to build a new stadium is strongly opposed by Republicans (-29%), Democrats (-35%), and Independents (-31%) alike. Interestingly, it is even unpopular among Middle Tennesseans, where the stadium would be built, with 32% of Middle Tennesseans supporting this use of tax dollars and 59% opposing it.

While many Tennesseans likely aren’t familiar with the concept of taxpayer-funded lobbying, nearly all Tennesseans condemn it on principle. A minuscule 5% of voters agree that local governments should be able to use tax dollars to hire contract lobbyists to lobby at the federal and state levels, while a whopping 72% disagree.

Inflation is clearly the number one issue for voters across the country, and it is no different here in Tennessee. An overwhelming 80% of Tennesseans consider inflation to be a big or very big problem for them while only 5% consider it to be a small problem or not a problem at all. The rise in the cost of groceries is the biggest source of frustration, with 85% of Tennesseans feeling the most significant impact of inflation at the grocery store.

Recent comments made by Jerry Seinfeld sparked debate about whether political correctness is ruining comedy. Most voters (62%) believe that political correctness has led to a decline in comedy, movies, and television shows while 23% of voters do not. There is a notable difference in opinion on this issue based on political affiliation. A large majority of Republicans (+67%) and Independents (+52%) believe political correctness has, in fact, led to a decline in comedy while Democrats (-15%) are more likely to disagree with that notion.

You can read the full poll with party crosstabs here.
You can read the full poll with demographic and regional crosstabs here.
You can read the full poll of likely voters here.
You can read the full poll with other additional demographic details here.